As the Philippines enters the second month of 2026, the political atmosphere in Manila has shifted from festive to predatory. The signing of the 6.79 trillion peso national budget was intended to be a symbol of stability, but it has instead acted as a catalyst for the most significant political schism in a generation.

At the heart of this storm is the impending impeachment of Vice President Sara Duterte, a move that veteran political analyst Lito Banayo describes as a “done de@l” within the halls of the House of Representatives. Scheduled for February 7, 2026, the impeachment trial represents the culmination of a multi-year demolition campaign designed to neutralize the Duterte legacy before the 2028 presidential race begins.

However, the strategy of attacking the Vice President on the grounds of her 125 million peso confidential fund expenditure is proving to be a double-edged sword for the administration. To the ordinary “man on the street,” the 125 million pesos spent in 11 days is a significant figure, but it pales in comparison to the trillions allegedly lost in the flood control scandals and budget “magic tricks.”

The “Politics of the Stomach” remains the ultimate decider of public perception, and as inflation continues to squeeze the middle class, the administration’s focus on political prosecution is being viewed with increasing cynicism. Lito Banayo points out that the “Ayuda Economy”—where billions are diverted into cash aid programs like AKAP, TUPAD, and MAIP—is a sign of a government that has abandoned developmental growth in favor of political survival.

These aid programs are being utilized as “soft pork,” reportedly used to secure the loyalty of congressmen in exchange for their signatures on the impeachment complaint. In the House of Representatives, the “Pasko” or Christmas season has reportedly been extended into February, with “goodies” from the pork barrel being distributed to ensure a swift vote against the Vice President.

This accelerated timeline for impeachment is a historical anomaly; typically, demolition campaigns of this scale do not reach a fever pitch until the penultimate year of a term. But the Marcos-Duterte rift has moved at a breakneck pace, driven by the realization that the Vice President’s trust ratings remain insulated from the attacks of the “QuadComm” and other investigative b0dies.

The “Solid North,” once the impenetrable fortress of the Marcos family, is showing visible signs of cracking as rural farmers in Ilocos and Pangasinan struggle with the high price of rice and the failure of flood control projects. Farmers in the north are reportedly reeling from the “importation craze” and the lack of genuine support for local agriculture, leading to a dip in the President’s disapproval ratings in his own backyard.

The Vice President, meanwhile, has spent the early weeks of 2026 “touring” the disaster-stricken areas of Mindanao and the Visayas, positioning herself as the empathetic alternative to a “Bangag” or incompetent central leadership. Her high approval ratings, particularly the 95% trust rating in Mindanao, suggest that the administration’s attacks are being perceived as a form of “imperial Manila” persecution.

One of the most controversial aspects of the current political discourse is the 12% Value Added Tax (VAT), a legacy of the 2006 fiscal crisis that many argue is no longer justified. Senator Tulfo and other populist voices are calling for a return to the 10% VAT rate, arguing that the country’s debt-to-GDP ratio—while high at 63%—does not warrant such an “onerous” tax on the working class.

The Department of Finance (DOF) has reacted with alarm to these proposals, fearing a massive loss in revenue, but analysts argue that a 2% reduction would be offset by increased domestic consumption. In a “Politics of the Stomach” environment, lowering the VAT on petroleum and electricity would be a massive win for the common Filipino, yet the administration appears more focused on funding the “impeachment goodies.”

The use of “Guarantee Letters” (GL) by politicians has also come under fire as a form of unconstitutional political patronage. DOH Secretary Ted Herbosa recently admitted that the DOH does not technically operate on these letters, yet they remain the primary currency for congressmen seeking to buy local loyalty.

The Supreme Court’s previous rulings against post-enactment political intervention suggest that these GLs are a legal ticking time bomb. Yet, for as long as the “impeachment machinery” requires fuel, these unconstitutional practices are likely to continue through the mid-2026 election cycle.

The 2026 National Budget is being described by critics as a “Sinister Budget,” with billions being set aside for “Farm-to-Market” roads that have no clear developmental plan. Instead, these projects are being awarded to “accredited” contractors with no proven capacity, acting as another layer of the kickback system exposed by the Descaya family earlier this year.

The “Magic Tricks” in the budget—where funds for the PhilHealth and MUP pensions are zeroed out or diverted—reveal a government that is “robbing Peter to pay Paul.” By diverting pension funds into “Ayuda,” the administration is creating a short-term illusion of support while jeopardizing the long-term stability of the nation’s social safety net.

The Ombudsman’s investigation into the flood control scandal and the “Kings of Allocables” has become a slow-moving drama that many suspect will end in the usual “absunelto” or acquittal of the “big fish.” History in the Philippines suggests that the court system often acts as the “escape hatch” for the wealthy, a fact that Ombudsman Remulla himself recently lamented in a moment of rare candor.

This perception of a “rigged system” is what fuels the popularity of the Duterte brand of populism, which thrives on the narrative of an outsider fighting against a corrupt establishment. As the February 7 reckoning approaches, the Vice President’s legal team, led by Sigfrid Fortun, is preparing for what will essentially be a “mini-trial” in the House Justice Committee.

The challenge for the administration is that a public trial might give the Vice President a platform to “deflect” the 125 million peso issue back toward the trillion-peso scandals of Malacañang. In a political trial, media “savviness” is just as important as legal evidence, and the Dutertes have historically excelled at the “communications war.”

The “Spoks” or spokespersons for both sides are already engaging in a “word war” that has completely overshadowed the actual economic problems of the nation. While Edwin Lacierda and other “Pinklawan” voices push for accountability, the pro-Duterte vloggers like Darryl Yap are preparing to “dudurugin” or crush the administration’s narrative in the digital space.

The “Len-Len” series of the 2022 elections has evolved into a new form of digital warfare, where every administrative mistake is magnified into a “Bangag” meme. This digital divide is creating a polarized electorate that is increasingly immune to traditional media reporting and forensic audits.

The international dimension also plays a role, with the administration’s “surrender” to the ICC being viewed by some as an act of national betrayal. This “ICC Card” has created a wave of sympathy for the former President, which has naturally extended to his daughter, the Vice President.

Economically, the country is being described as a “Sachet Economy,” where people can only afford the bare minimum for daily survival. Foreign and local investment remains stagnant due to the political instability caused by the impeachment drama and the perceived “judicial corruption” in the country.

The last quarter of 2025 showed a slight dip in inflation, but consumer confidence remains low as the price of basics like alcohol and tobacco—the “sin products”—has plummeted in favor of basic groceries. This shift in consumption patterns is the ultimate red flag for an economy; when the people stop spending on “little luxuries,” it means they are in survival mode.

The 2026 budget was supposed to “pump prime” the economy through massive infrastructure spending, but the suspension of the Descaya firms has halted projects across the country. This “halt” in infrastructure means fewer jobs and less money circulating in the local communities, further fueling the “Politics of the Stomach” crisis.

The February 7 impeachment is not just a trial of a person; it is a trial of the “UniTeam” alliance that won the 2022 elections. Its collapse is now complete, and the two factions are now in an all-out war that will likely last until the final vote is cast in 2028.

For the ordinary Filipino, the “125 million versus 1.4 trillion” debate is a confusing maze of numbers that distracts from the empty wallet in their pocket. But the “resibos” of corruption are becoming too large to hide, even with the most sophisticated “magic tricks” of the budget magicians.

As the “Kings of Allocables” and the “Hari ng Pork” continue their socialite lifestyle in BGC and Makati, the “Rural North” and the “Solid South” are finding common ground in their suffering. The impeachment may succeed in the House, where money is the primary motivator, but the Senate remains the “wild card” where political survival is tied to public opinion.

The Senate trial will be the ultimate reality show of 2026, a 900-day countdown to the end of the term that will determine who sits in Malacañang next. Will it be a “Bagong Pilipinas” that has finally purged its corruption, or will it be a return to the “Davao Model” of populist iron-fist rule?

The answers are “nakaukit sa palad” or etched in the palms of the Filipino voters, who have a habit of surprising the “magicians” when they least expect it. The “February Reckoning” is just the beginning of a long and painful process of political realignment that will leave no stone unturned in the Philippine treasury.

We must remain vigilant, questioning the “unprogrammed funds” and the “VAT justification” until every peso is accounted for. The “magic tricks” only work if we look away, but in 2026, the Filipino people are looking directly into the eyes of their leaders and demanding the truth.

Justice for the taxpayer is the only way to heal the “Politics of the Stomach” and to build a nation that is truly for the people. Let the “February 7 trial” be a lesson in accountability for everyone, from the highest official to the lowest bagman in the bureaucracy.

The struggle for the nation’s soul is being fought in the budget, in the courts, and in the hearts of the common people. We will continue to document the “resibos,” the “magic,” and the “betrayal” as the Philippines navigates the most volatile year in its modern history.

Stay informed, stay alert, and never let the “goodies” of the pork barrel distract you from the reality of your children’s future. The “February Reckoning” is coming, and the truth will be the only thing that remains when the smoke of the impeachment finally clears.

The 6.79 trillion pesos is your money, the 125 million is your money, and the 1.4 trillion is your money—it is time we all acted like the owners. As the “magicians” prepare their next act, the audience is finally standing up and demanding to see what is hidden up their sleeves.