THE ANATOMY OF A BUDGETARY TRAP AND THE AUTHENTICITY WAR

I. Prologue: The Great Validation

The final days of 2025 will be remembered as the moment the Philippine government’s narrative of “deniability” suffered a fatal forensic blow. For weeks, the Department of Public Works and Highways (DPWH) and the Malacañang Palace maintained that the so-called “Cabral Files”—a digital and physical ledger of multi-billion peso budget insertions—were “unauthenticated” and “illegal.”

However, in a tactical maneuver that has been characterized by political analysts as a “Checkmate,” the administration’s aggressive attempt to prosecute Batangas Representative Leandro Leviste for the “forcible taking” of these documents has served to authenticate them in the eyes of the law and the public.

The standoff is no longer about whether the documents exist; it is about the desperation of a system that is attempting to k*ll the messenger while the message itself remains unassailable. The overarching theme of this investigation is the “Paradox of Prosecution”—how the state’s evidence of “theft” became the public’s evidence of “truth.”

II. The CCTV Trap: How the Palace Authenticated the Leak

The turning point of this scandal occurred when the Palace, through the PCO and DPWH Secretary Vince Dizon, released CCTV footage from September 4, 2025. The intent was to paint Rep. Leviste as a criminal who entered the office of the late Undersecretary Maria Catalina “Kathy” Cabral to “forcibly seize” sensitive documents.

The footage shows Leviste entering the office at approximately 5:00 PM, followed by movements to the programming office on the same floor. The administration’s script alleged that Leviste snatched the papers from Cabral’s desk, causing a physical struggle that resulted in a “paper cut” on the Undersecretary’s finger. They even provided photos of Cabral with a bandaged hand as forensic proof of the “assault.”

However, Rep. Leviste immediately flipped the narrative. By showing Leviste in the office, handling the specific papers he has since made public, the Palace effectively provided the “Chain of Custody” for the evidence. Leviste issued a public statement “thanking” the DPWH for confirming that the files in his possession were indeed the official documents from Cabral’s office. The “Paper Cut” defense backfired; instead of evoking sympathy for the official, it focused public attention on why the documents were so valuable that a physical struggle would even be alleged.

III. The Magalong Confirmation: The September Precedent

The Palace’s claim that the files were “unverified” faced another massive institutional challenge from Baguio City Mayor Benjamin Magalong. As a former special advisor to the Independent Commission for Infrastructure (ICI), Magalong revealed that he was in possession of the exact same data as early as the second week of September 2025.

Magalong recounted a chilling interaction with Kathy Cabral during her first interview with the commission. When he presented her with the numbers from the ledger, Cabral reportedly panicked, began trembling, and suffered a sudden fit of coughing that required her to ask for water.

Most critically, Magalong confirmed that he provided copies of these files to Secretary Vince Dizon and other commissioners months ago. This revelation destroys the “Unaware” script used by the DPWH leadership and suggests that the “Architect’s” secrets were already circulating within the highest levels of the investigative b0dies long before the public leak.

IV. The Ombudsman Standoff: Volunteered vs. Withheld

The battle for the files moved to the Office of the Ombudsman, where Assistant Ombudsman Miko Clavano alleged that Leviste had only provided a “limited part” of the Cabral Files during their investigation. Leviste’s rebuttal was swift and documented: he claimed he volunteered more information than was ever requested.

Leviste challenged Clavano’s credibility, noting that Clavano was not even present during the investigation team’s visit on November 26. He invited the Ombudsman to compare his files with the soft copies already in the possession of the DPWH and the ICI. This standoff highlights a systemic effort by certain government agencies to “dilute” the evidence, attempting to convince the public that the leaked list is incomplete or manipulated, while the digital “originals” remain hidden from public view.

V. The Wish List: Budgeting as a Dynastic Menu

The “Cabral Files” have exposed what whistleblower Roberto Bernardo calls an “inappropriate intervention” in the National Expenditure Program (NEP). Instead of the budget being based on technical engineering studies, the documents reveal it was a “Wish List” for the country’s most powerful politicians.

The leaked spreadsheets detail sixteen line items for road projects in Davao City and Davao del Sur, totaling billions of pesos, requested by Vice President Sara Duterte during her tenure as Mayor. Similar line items, totaling $764$ million pesos, are linked to her brother, Representative Paulo “Pulong” Duterte. The files even implicate former presidential spokesperson Harry Roque in a series of project requests.

The forensic detail of these “insertions” is staggering. One rehabilitation project for a multi-purpose building, valued at three million pesos, appears in the official GAA as “completed” despite questions over its construction. Another $104$ million road project was reportedly split into two items but awarded to the same single contractor—a classic red flag for “SOP” or kickback schemes.

VI. The Ratings Crash: The Pulse of Public Disgust

The political fallout of the Cabral Files is now reflected in the latest national surveys. The December 12-15 Pulse Asia report shows a devastating decline in trust and performance ratings for President Bongbong Marcos. The President’s performance rating has plateaued at 34%, with a trust rating of only 32%. In contrast, Vice President Sara Duterte maintains a 56% approval rating and a 54% trust rating, despite being the target of the administration’s “Bagman” scripts and corruption allegations.

The SWS survey was even more dire, recording a “negative 3” for the President in certain metrics. Analysts suggest that the public sees the government’s investigation into flood control as “optics” and “theater” (Sarswela). The administration’s failure to deliver on the “Merry Christmas in jail” promise for the “Big Fish” like Zaldy Co or the proponents of the $16.6$ billion Silver Wolves heist has turned the public against the current leadership.

VII. The Strategy of Confusion: Missing Laptops and Burnt Offices

The investigation into the “Architect’s” files continues to be plagued by physical anomalies. Shortly after Kathy Cabral’s d@ath, reports surfaced that the computers and laptops in her private office—which Batangas Rep. Leviste called the “Key to the Agency’s Corruption”—had been scrubbed or removed.

This follows the mysterious fire at a DPWH establishment in Quezon City on October 22, 2025. Despite being a modern high-rise equipped with building-code-mandated sprinklers and sensors, the fire was allowed to consume critical documents. The government’s reliance on “authenticated” files while simultaneously failing to protect the physical hardware where those files were stored has created a narrative of institutional sabotage. As Atty. Trixie Angeles pointed out, the government is currently using a “Strategy of Overload,” bombarding the public with so many scandals that they become jaded and stop looking for the specific names on the Cabral List.

VIII. Conclusion: The Standoff of 2026

The Philippines enters 2026 in a state of total forensic disruption. The Palace’s attempt to use the “Paper Cut” as a m*rder weapon against Rep. Leviste’s reputation has failed, leaving the “Cabral Files” more authenticated than ever. The standoff between the “Architect’s Digital Ghost” and the “Palace Scriptwriters” is reaching a breaking point.

As the 2026 budget is rushed through ratification—overnight and with allegations of $2$ million bonuses for congressmen—the Filipino people are left with a simple choice: to believe the “unauthenticated” files of a whistleblower or the “authenticated” silence of a government that refuses to release its own ledger.

Kathy Cabral is gone, but the list she left behind has ensured that the “Checkmate” delivered in December will haunt the proponents of the flood control anomaly into the new year. The truth is no longer hidden in a basement or a ravine; it is in the spreadsheets that the Palace just confirmed are real.